The Effects of Fiscal Effort in Tunisia: An Evidence from the ARDL Bound Testing Approach

The purpose of this paper is to examine the various structural determinants of revenue and tax effort in Tunisia. We used on the empirical study an ARDL model to estimate the dynamic equation of fiscal potential and its structural and non-structural determinants covering the period of 1996–2017 in Tunisia. The empirical results show that before 2010, Tunisia fully exploited its fiscal potential, and the tax effort was above unity. After 2010 this trend was reversed. Despite the increase in the tax burden, Tunisia is below potential. The results showed that Tunisia is facing dramatic difficulties in mobilizing more tax revenue with this same taxpayer base. As a result, it is called upon to orient reform actions towards two aspects: broadening the taxpayer base to guarantee more tax fairness and adopting an awareness and motivation strategy aimed at greater tax compliance. Tunisia should adopt reforms that aim to eliminate the flat-rate regime and put in place advantages and procedures to facilitate and motivate the transition from informal to formal. Finally, it would be wise to further regulate cash payments and ensure the application of the legal rules governing the matter. In order to optimize the allocation of budgetary resources and ease the pressure on public finances, it would be appropriate, even with a delay in relation to the legislation to fight tax evasion and fraud by improving the human and material resources made available to the tax administration and consolidating its digitalization efforts.