A Program for Multimessenger Standard Siren Cosmology in the Era of LIGO A+, Rubin Observatory, and Beyond

The most promising variation of the standard siren technique combines gravitational-wave (GW) data for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers with redshift measurements enabled by their electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, to constrain cosmological parameters such as H0, Ωm, and w0. Here we evaluate the near- and long-term prospects of multimessenger cosmology in the era of future GW observatories: Advanced LIGO Plus (A+, 2025), Voyager-like detectors (2030s), and Cosmic Explorer–like detectors (2035 and beyond). We show that the BNS horizon distance of ≈ 700 Mpc for A+ is well matched to the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO) for kilonova detections. We find that one year of joint A+ and VRO observations will constrain the value of H0 to percent-level precision, given a small investment of VRO time dedicated to target-of-opportunity GW follow-up. In the Voyager era, the BNS–kilonova observations begin to constrain Ωm with an investment of a few percent of VRO time. With the larger BNS horizon distance in the Cosmic Explorer era, on-axis short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) and their afterglows (though accompanying only some of the GW-detected mergers) supplant kilonovae as the most promising counterparts for redshift identification. We show that five years of joint observations with Cosmic Explorer–like facilities and a next-generation gamma-ray satellite with localization capabilities similar to that presently possible with Swift could constrain both Ωm and w0 to 15%–20%. We therefore advocate for a robust target-of-opportunity (ToO) program with VRO, and a wide-field gamma-ray satellite with improved sensitivity in the 2030s, to enable standard siren cosmology with next-generation gravitational-wave facilities.