Prognostic Model for Optimal Cost and Material Management in Nigeria Building Construction Industry

The high rate of cost overruns of construction projects in Nigeria had led to research into developing strategies and ways to reduce cost overruns in construction project. Based on the material management system implemented in the construction project, this work developed regression models for predicting the frequency of building project cost overrun. Five (5) material management systems have been established, each consisting of four (4) main phases of material identification (MS), vendor selection (VS), procurement (PRO) and construction (CON) phases. The results showed the management system's procurement process and vendor selection phase to have the greatest impact on causing project cost overruns with 89 percent and 77 percent high-probability estimates when these phases were absent from material management systems. Nonetheless, the Material Identification had the least influence with a 40 percent likelihood forecast. This research showed that with large amounts of resources being diverted to the procurement and vendor selection process of the material management system, project cost overruns in the construction industry would be minimal.